There is a lot written about Android, and there is no doubt, that it has taken market share within the world of smart phones by storm, now commanding around 40-51% of the smart phone market share (depending in which country you are). But could Android start to lose its market share, so much so that it could even die off as an OS?
Well, let’s not get ahead, but it does have a number of problems which could see its commanding market position being eroded. Though each issues isn’t a major concern on its own, once you start adding all these together, you start to see reasons why manufacturers and consumers alike may well move away from Android…
IP issues
If you are an Android fanboy then you may not like this, but the fact is that the Android OS has some liberal code within it shall we say. It infringes on a number of intellectual property rights of a number of different companies, all of which aren’t happy about having their work stolen (in their eyes). Personally I can’t blame these companies for looking for compensation – after all they were the ones that invested the money in the first place in the necessary R&D.
Android has so many IP issues that most manufacturers that ship Android devices, now pay Microsoft a license fee to be able to do so. I know that many hate Microsoft in general and hate the fact that Microsoft is doing this, but again, you really can’t blame them from a business point of view.
This issue may not be a massive one, but it does make manufacturers look at other operating systems for their devices, and there has even been rumours that HTC and Samsung may even look to build their own operating systems (I doubt it though). As a manufacturer, if you have to pay Microsoft to use Android, isn’t it worth your time to also look at Windows Phone?
Orphaned hardware
One of the big issues with Android is that Android devices don’t get upgraded. Most Android devices are orphaned in less than a year, meaning that they don’t receive the latest updates to the operating system. For your bog standard user this isn’t a major problem, but for those who like to use apps on their device, this can cause some problems. There are many apps out there that are Android version specific, which means you could find the app you want won’t run on your particular Android device, though it’s an Android app. For the consumer, this is potentially a source of real frustration.
Hardware faults
Android devices go wrong more than any other device, which is reportedly costing carriers billions each year. Again this may not be a massive issue in its own right, because this cost must be being outweighed by the money coming in from Android, but it is another negative for Android. If carriers start to feel this cost is getting too high, then Android will have a very tough time of it very quickly.
Apple hate it…
Whenever we read about Android there are comparisons with Apple’s iOS, and you can’t help it. When you browse smart phones in a store, you can’t but notice that Android devices do look like a bit of a copy of the iOS user interface. With some manufacturers it really does look like they have blatantly copied the iPhone in every respect (I will not mention any names). We all know that Steve Jobs hated Android and vowed to kill it off, and Apple do still seem pretty determined to do their best here, pursuing a number of injunctions globally stopping the sale of many Android devices.
User experience
When you compare the user experience to other mobile operating systems available, you get the impression that functionality wise, Android really does compete. However, as an experience, it’s not great. Many people complain it renders graphics slowly, that it’s clunky, that it’s not intuitive to use and I would personally agree with all these comments. When you compare it to iOS it feels like a poor man’s imitation, and that is not good. When you compare it to Windows Phone 7, well, you start to feel like you are comparing an Austin Metro with an Aston Martin in terms of looks, polish and performance.
The power needed and battery drain
Because the way the UI is designed, Android really does need quite a bit of power to start to deliver slick animations and performance. This is why we see Android devices boasting some serious hardware power, all that power is needed to make sure Android performs. But this comes at a cost. And that price is battery life. If you want to use your Android as a true smart phone, then you may well kiss good bye to your battery before you get home from work (probably a long time before you get home from work). Is your phone really smart if you can’t even use it as a phone before the day is out?
Viruses and Carrier IQ
Ahhh the dreaded virus word. Android is an open OS, it also has a very open market place, enabling rogue apps to easily make their way down onto devices. Throw into the mix that the OS itself is open source and you can see that it isn’t too difficult to start building rather malicious apps that make it onto the device. Not a great problem at the moment, but as more user make the move over to smart phones, more viruses will be created and the more of us consumers will get annoyed with devices that are so prone to them.
The carrier IQ incident really hasn’t done Android any favours. Though it was also found on the iPhone, it was to a lesser extent. RIM and Windows Phone (along with Nokia in general) won some kudos here by proving that Carrier IQ doesn’t ship on these devices.
Different flavours
Google likes to think it controls Android, but it doesn’t in all areas. A great example is Amazon and its Kindle Fire. Built on a “forked” version of Android, Amazon now maintains its OS for Kindle Fire. This doesn’t sound like an issue, but as a consumer things do start to get confusing, all these flavours of an OS is not good (one of the reasons why UNIX couldn’t defend Microsoft within the Enterprise).
No go for business
Android is a no go for Businesses in any way shape or form. Simply put, it’s too open and too risky. This won’t ever change.
Google and Motorola
The Google deal is of great concern to many manufacturers that use Android. Why would Google help them with Android when they are now in direct competition? Will Google make newer releases available to other manufacturers, let alone provide preview software versions? This coupled with Android IP issues are probably the two biggest concerns to manufacturers – and why we continually hear rumours of them looking at other options (including Windows or purchasing another OS).
Interoperability
As we start to embrace more devices and more cloud based services, so we expect to be able to do more things across those devices seamlessly. Android isn’t great for this. But there is a game changer coming, and that’s Windows 8.
Windows 8 enables real connectivity between devices, and seamless integration with cloud services. This is all done with a single UI experience across phone, tablet, notebook, laptop and PC. Once this is released to the consumer, this will be the level expected for all forms of devices. Can Google really get Android to do this quickly and in a fashion that doesn’t feel like beta software? I don’t think they can, but I believe Apple can, and will…
Nokia
They may not be dead after all, and if Nokia gets back into the swing of things in the smart phone arena then everyone else needs to watch out. Nokia still commands the largest market share within the mobile phone industry, and recent releases of the Lumia 800 in Asia indicate just how strong their brand is globally. Throw into the mix the deal with Microsoft and you can see the real possibility of a resurgent Nokia…
Conclusion
Android is going nowhere for the time being. But all of these points raised in this post are all issues that grouped together, could spell bad times ahead for Android. When looking at the mobile OS world, if you fall out of favour, you will fall out very quickly indeed. We need only look at Nokia and now RIM…










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